Announcement
2026-03-10
First SEC disclosure
Meeting / Vote
2026-05-27
SCHEDULED
Effective
—
Legal effective date
Market Cap
$620.0B
At announcement
Why this firm matters
At $620.0B pre-move market value, ExxonMobil Corp. is among the largest firms in the cohort and carries disproportionate weight in market-value-weighted aggregates. Vote scheduled for 2026-05-27; results pending.
Controller & ownership
Diffuse / non-controlledOwnership concentration data not yet documented for this firm.
Source: Widely held, no controlling shareholder
Vote outcome — reincorporation proposal
Approval standard: Per DEF 14A 0001193125-26-147614: favorable vote of a majority of votes cast; transaction effected through plan of merger under NJBCA Title 14A Chapter 10 + TBOC merger provisions. Meeting type: annual.
Vote totals not yet pulled. Awaiting EDGAR Item 5.07.
Visual evidence — event study around the March 10, 2026 announcement
Six chart-level views of the announcement-window data. Captions are verbatim from the underlying figures; underlying numbers come from
xom_rerun_results.json (estimation window 2025-03-25 to 2026-03-09, 240 trading days; 21 energy-sector donors; SC top-3 weights CVX 0.55, EOG 0.20, SLB 0.09).
ExxonMobil tracked its energy-peer benchmark through the announcement
Pre-announcement tracking error = 0.77%. The two lines stay close through the announcement and after — that visual co-movement is the null finding.
Method
Synthetic control · 21-firm energy-sector donor pool · normalized to 100 sixty trading days before the announcement.
The gap between ExxonMobil and its benchmark stayed inside the pre-announcement range
Every post-announcement day stays inside the same range the gap occupied before the announcement. No break in the relationship; no governance discount visible at the event date.
Method
Cumulative ExxonMobil-minus-synthetic gap with ±1.50 pp 95% pre-announcement uncertainty band.
ExxonMobil's announcement-day move was ordinary, not an outlier
92% of random pseudo-days had a larger absolute gap than the real announcement day. Placebo p-value = 0.92. If the announcement had moved the stock, the red line would sit far in the tail of the distribution. Instead it sits near the center — a real shock would not look like this.
Method
In-time placebo: 100 random pseudo-announcement days drawn from the 220 trading days before the real announcement; same synthetic-control machinery applied to each.
The data rule out an economically meaningful negative effect on ExxonMobil's stock price
Best estimate of true effect = +0.02%. 95% credibility range: [−1.48%, +1.53%]. A −2% governance discount has 0.40% probability of being true; a −3% discount, less than 0.1%. The data are not consistent with the disenfranchisement thesis.
Method
Bayesian posterior over the announcement-day true effect, weakly-informative prior, conditioned on the synthetic-control day-0 gap and pre-period RMSE.
Oil-factor importance: nested specification comparison
Adding BNO to the market model raises R² from 0.22 to 0.55. β_BNO = 0.488, t = 12.6, p < 10⁻²⁷. F(1, 217) = 158.5 (p < 10⁻¹⁶).
Method
Nested OLS comparison: Spec 1 = XOM ~ SPY (market only); Spec 2 = XOM ~ SPY + BNO (oil-augmented). Estimation window 2025-03-25 to 2026-03-09. Justifies oil-augmented as the preferred announcement-window benchmark.
Data integrity. Each PNG is byte-identical to the figure shipped with the FINAL_BLUE_SKY analysis package; SHA-256 verified at deploy time. The underlying coefficients trace to
xom_rerun_results.json in the replication kit. Open methodology and underlying code → See also: Cohort-wide event study → for the nine-firm Day-0 forest plot and cross-firm comparison.
Event-study abnormal returns — announcement window
Returns around the announcement date.
Event date: 2026-03-10 · Estimation window: 2025-03-25 to 2026-03-09 (240 days)
| Specification | Day-0 AR | Inference |
|---|---|---|
| Synthetic control (21-donor energy peer pool)i | -0.11% | placebo p-value (in-time, gap-based) = 0.955 |
| Market model (SPY benchmark)i | -1.55% | Patell-z p-value = 0.281 |
| Oil-augmented market model (SPY + WTI) HEADLINEi | -2.19% *** | Patell-z p-value = 0.049 |
| Matched pair vs CVX (market-model-adjusted)i | +0.04% | two-sided p-value = 0.958 |
| Raw differential vs CVXi | +0.13% | no inference |
Robustness checks — does the headline result hold up?
Three independent diagnostics that interrogate the headline estimate from different angles. All three pointing the same way = high confidence in the result.
- Pre-event drift check: the firm's daily abnormal return drifted by -0.0002% per day in the pre-event window (p = 0.820). no detectable pre-event drift ✓. — A near-zero slope means the pre-event period was stable, so the day-0 reaction is not contamination from a pre-existing trend.
- Donor co-movement check: 10 of 11 peer firms moved in the same direction as the treated firm on the event day (binomial p = 0.0117). — A high concordance means the day was driven by industry-wide news rather than something firm-specific. A low concordance means the firm moved differently from peers (potential firm-specific signal).
- Synthetic-control fit quality: pre-event correlation between the firm and its synthetic twin = 0.886 (good tracking); R² = 0.771 (fraction of pre-event variance explained); Durbin-Watson = 1.88 (no autocorrelation). — Higher correlation + higher R² + Durbin-Watson near 2 means the synthetic peer was a good match before the event, so the post-event gap is interpretable.
Event-study abnormal returns — vote window
Returns around the shareholder-vote (or written-consent) date.
Vote window CARs not yet computed (vote on 2026-05-27).
Long-run abnormal returns & pooled estimates
Buy-and-hold abnormal returns (1 / 3 / 6 / 12 months) and calendar-time portfolio alpha (CTE) post-effective.
No long-run / pooled estimates available for this firm yet — run phase5z_compute_longrun.py on Windows to populate (requires effective date ≥ 3 months ago).
Cohort-level robustness battery
Heckman selection-corrected ATE · Romano-Wolf step-down + BH FDR · pooled BHAR. This firm's reading is shown in context of the full cohort.
Heckman two-step selection correction (controlled-vs-widely-held)
Cohort ATE = +0.94% (SE = 7.06%, n = 2395) after correcting for controller-status selection (inverse Mills ratio = -0.062).
Romano-Wolf step-down + Benjamini-Hochberg FDR (n = 47)
This firm: raw p = 0.282, Romano-Wolf adjusted p = 1.000, BH-FDR adjusted p = 0.966. Multiple-hypothesis correction is computed across the full cohort to control family-wise error rate at alpha = 0.05.
Pooled cohort BHAR (mover firms only)
BHAR_63d: mean = -5.60% (SE = 22.11%, n = 3, p = 0.499) · BHAR_126d: mean = +17.33% (SE = 41.17%, n = 3, p = 0.774)
See Cohort event study → for the full battery and forest plots.
Texas Statutory Adoptions
Status: N/A pending reincorporation.
The Texas opt-in statutory regimes (TBOC §21.552 / SB 29 derivative threshold; TBOC §21.373 / SB 1057 shareholder-proposal threshold) are available only to firms that are nationally listed Texas corporations. ExxonMobil Corp. is not yet Texas-incorporated; the move is pending shareholder vote with a proposed effective date of 2026-05-27. These adoptions can be elected only on or after the firm's TX effective date.
Source filings
Primary-source documents on SEC EDGAR plus IR / search links.
- IR — https://investor.exxonmobil.com/
- EDGAR — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000034088&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- Proxy — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000034088&type=DEF+14A&dateb=&owner=include&count=40
- EDGAR accession (canonical) —
0001193125-26-098908
Classification & audit trail
Bucket
D
Panel eligibility
PANEL_A_post_SB29
Audit status
TIER3_REVIEWED_REV61
Source confidence
VERIFIED_PROXY
Transaction status
PENDING
Audit notes
[rev61 2026-05-18] Tier-3 data-audit BLOCK landed: mechanism reclassified from 'Conversion' to merger / holding-company redomiciliation via plan of merger. DEF 14A 0001193125-26-147614 filed 2026-04-08; PRE 14A 0001193125-26-098908; record date 2026-04-01; board recommends FOR. Vote 2026-05-27. Post-vote: 8-K Item 5.07 (within 4 business days) + Certificate of Merger filings (NJ DORES + TX SOS) will close out the audit trail. R3 post-vote dispatch queued.
Related firms
Use these for cross-firm sanity checks — peers in size, sector, or destination.
Replication kit — downloads
Every numerical result on this page traces to one of the files below. A reviewer who runs the script in their language of choice and matches expected_results.json within the documented tolerances (±0.5 percentage points on point estimates, ±0.05 on p-values) has independently validated the methodology.
Data files
CSV
Daily prices
Every daily closing price for ExxonMobil, 21 energy-sector peer firms, the S&P 500, and Brent crude (BNO) over 713 trading days (June 2023 – April 2026). The only raw input the analysis needs.
392 KB
Download ↓
CSV
Day-0 + CAR table
A compact summary of the five event-study specifications. Each row is a method (synthetic control, market model, oil-augmented, matched pair, raw differential); each column is what that method says about the announcement-day reaction.
<1 KB
Download ↓
JSON
Full results
The complete machine-readable output of the published analysis: every point estimate, every p-value, every donor weight, every robustness diagnostic. What the firm page reads from.
2 KB
Download ↓
JSON
Reference output
The published v1.4 numbers, frozen. Diff your replication against this to verify you produced the same answer within the documented tolerances.
2 KB
Download ↓
Code & documentation
.py
Python replication
Self-contained Python script that runs all five specifications from the daily prices file. About 200 lines; standard libraries only (pandas, numpy, scipy). Five minutes end-to-end.
11 KB
Download ↓
.R
R replication
R port of the Python script using quadprog for the synthetic-control simplex problem. Produces output_R.json in the same schema as the Python version for cross-platform verification.
7 KB
Download ↓
.do
Stata replication
The most comprehensive replication — includes the TOST equivalence test at ±2 percentage points and the full placebo permutation distribution that the Python and R versions skip. Requires synth, mat2txt, estout packages.
17 KB
Download ↓
txt
Python requirements
Pinned package versions for the Python replication. Use with
pip install -r requirements.txt to recreate the exact environment the published numbers were computed in.MD
README guide
Run instructions, tolerance rules, methodology summary, and the protocol for reporting your replication findings back to the project lead.
5 KB
Download ↓
Primary sources — SEC EDGAR
EDGAR
PRE 14A
Preliminary proxy statement — the first public announcement of the proposed New Jersey-to-Texas reincorporation. Filed 2026-03-10. Accession 0001193125-26-098908.
EDGAR
DEF 14A
Definitive proxy statement for the May 27, 2026 annual meeting. Contains the final reincorporation proposal text put to shareholders. Accession 0001193125-26-147614.
EDGAR
Soliciting material
Rule 14a-12 soliciting material filed alongside the PRE 14A — additional communications to shareholders about the redomestication. Accession 0001193125-26-099413.
Headline to verify. Oil-augmented Day-0 AR = −2.19% (Patell p = 0.0488, significant at 5%) after controlling for energy-sector co-movement. If your replication produces a Day-0 AR within ±0.5 percentage points of −2.19% and a Patell p within ±0.05 of 0.0488, the methodology is validated. Otherwise, that is a real finding worth reporting.
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