{
  "event_date": "2026-03-10",
  "estimation_window": "2025-03-25 to 2026-03-09 (240 days)",
  "synthetic_control": {
    "donors_used": [
      "CVX",
      "COP",
      "EOG",
      "SLB",
      "OXY",
      "MPC",
      "VLO",
      "PSX",
      "DVN",
      "FANG",
      "HAL",
      "BKR",
      "CTRA",
      "OVV",
      "APA",
      "EQT",
      "WMB",
      "OKE",
      "TRGP",
      "LNG",
      "ET"
    ],
    "n_donors": 21,
    "top_weights": {
      "CVX": 0.5486,
      "EOG": 0.1983,
      "SLB": 0.0938,
      "WMB": 0.0837,
      "COP": 0.0363,
      "OXY": 0.0294,
      "CTRA": 0.0099
    },
    "all_weights": {
      "CVX": 0.5486,
      "EOG": 0.1983,
      "SLB": 0.0938,
      "WMB": 0.0837,
      "COP": 0.0363,
      "OXY": 0.0294,
      "CTRA": 0.0099,
      "APA": 0.0,
      "ET": 0.0,
      "BKR": 0.0,
      "HAL": 0.0,
      "EQT": 0.0,
      "OKE": 0.0,
      "DVN": 0.0,
      "FANG": 0.0,
      "VLO": 0.0,
      "LNG": 0.0,
      "MPC": 0.0,
      "PSX": 0.0,
      "OVV": 0.0,
      "TRGP": 0.0
    },
    "pre_rmspe": 0.007458,
    "post_rmspe_m1_p5": 0.006576,
    "rmspe_ratio": 0.8817,
    "corr_pre": 0.8861,
    "r2_pre": 0.7707,
    "day0_gap": -0.001105,
    "placebo_rank": 21,
    "placebo_n": 22,
    "placebo_p_gap": 0.9545,
    "placebo_p_ratio": 0.7273
  },
  "market_model": {
    "alpha": 0.000936,
    "beta": 0.5208,
    "sigma": 0.014337,
    "r2": 0.1598,
    "day0_ar": -0.015454,
    "patell_z": -1.0779,
    "patell_p": 0.2811
  },
  "oil_augmented": {
    "alpha": 0.000324,
    "beta_mkt": 0.358,
    "beta_oil": 0.4465,
    "sigma": 0.011112,
    "r2": 0.4974,
    "day0_ar": -0.021898,
    "patell_z": -1.9706,
    "patell_p": 0.0488,
    "corrado_z": -1.6099,
    "corrado_p": 0.1074,
    "bootstrap_p": 0.0569
  },
  "matched_pair_mm": {
    "ar_xom_day0": -0.015454,
    "ar_cvx_day0": -0.015899,
    "delta_day0": 0.000445,
    "se_delta": 0.008493,
    "t": 0.0524,
    "p": 0.9582
  },
  "raw_differential": {
    "xom_return": -0.015355,
    "cvx_return": -0.016628,
    "raw_diff": 0.001273
  }
}