{
  "event_kind": "TBOC \u00a721.552 adoption",
  "treated": "LUV",
  "event_dates": {
    "board": "2025-05-16",
    "filing": "2025-05-19",
    "T0_headline": "2025-05-20",
    "T0_index_position": 1351
  },
  "estimation_window": {
    "days": 240,
    "min_valid": 204
  },
  "specifications": {
    "A1_market_model_SPY": {
      "alpha": 0.0003453887542142269,
      "beta": 1.1980427085956087,
      "sigma": 0.020476270957431507,
      "r2": 0.36765351165498705,
      "day0_ar": 0.0009212248795865728,
      "patell_z": 0.04489643840947429,
      "patell_p": 0.9641898557213606,
      "bmp_z": 0.04498987542710897,
      "bmp_p": 0.9641153790228756,
      "corrado_z": 0.0574959574576069,
      "corrado_p": 0.9541501262650394,
      "n_valid_pre_days": 240
    },
    "A2_augmented_SPY_JETS": {
      "alpha": 0.00041896146758064567,
      "beta_SPY": 0.08581392798770715,
      "beta_JETS": 0.8489485444199367,
      "sigma": 0.016715147346016198,
      "r2": 0.5803906247303959,
      "day0_ar": 0.004564829281608139,
      "patell_z": 0.27309536596433875,
      "patell_p": 0.7847799088104885,
      "n_valid_pre_days": 240
    }
  },
  "robustness_footnote": {
    "SPY_plus_XLI": {
      "rationale": "Broad-industrials control. Weak rationale for a governance event with no contemporaneous industrial-sector shock; reported only to demonstrate spec invariance.",
      "alpha": 0.00016131266451470088,
      "beta_SPY": 0.637086441510644,
      "beta_XLI": 0.642363238672058,
      "sigma": 0.020181803353011302,
      "r2": 0.38829123308976166,
      "day0_ar": 0.001534433354749118,
      "patell_p": 0.9393948031685546
    },
    "SPY_plus_USO": {
      "rationale": "Oil control. Inappropriate for a governance event with no contemporaneous oil-market shock; reported only to demonstrate spec invariance.",
      "alpha": 0.00035136334190189773,
      "beta_SPY": 1.1888593522212505,
      "beta_USO": 0.017803790719294152,
      "sigma": 0.020516828125526805,
      "r2": 0.36781351823157316,
      "day0_ar": 0.0008453926110356773,
      "patell_p": 0.9671325955463141
    }
  },
  "alternative_T0": {
    "T0_a_board_2025-05-16": {
      "T0_used": "2025-05-16",
      "day0_ar": 0.01766656921603041,
      "patell_p": 0.39127920449730214,
      "alpha": 0.0004835603933730526,
      "beta": 1.1992049750972689,
      "n_valid": 240
    },
    "T0_b_filing_2025-05-19": {
      "T0_used": "2025-05-19",
      "day0_ar": -0.004248455331208431,
      "patell_p": 0.8366937225876745,
      "alpha": 0.000488821499493856,
      "beta": 1.1982260453249092,
      "n_valid": 240
    },
    "T0_c_next_trading_2025-05-20": {
      "T0_used": "2025-05-20",
      "day0_ar": 0.0009212248795865728,
      "patell_p": 0.9641898557213606,
      "alpha": 0.0003453887542142269,
      "beta": 1.1980427085956087,
      "n_valid": 240
    }
  },
  "windowed_CARs": {
    "Day0": {
      "window": [
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      "n_days": 1,
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      "patell_z": 0.04498987542710897,
      "patell_p": 0.9641153790228756,
      "ar_daily": [
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      "dates": [
        "2025-05-20"
      ]
    },
    "CAR_-1_+1": {
      "window": [
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        1
      ],
      "n_days": 3,
      "CAR": -0.006110397119777401,
      "patell_z": -0.1722891550562642,
      "patell_p": 0.8632102098801504,
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      "dates": [
        "2025-05-19",
        "2025-05-20",
        "2025-05-21"
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    "CAR_-2_+2": {
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      "n_days": 5,
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      "patell_z": -0.140522023879245,
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    },
    "CAR_-5_+5": {
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      "n_days": 11,
      "CAR": 0.03885535684754485,
      "patell_z": 0.5721418177903231,
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      "dates": [
        "2025-05-13",
        "2025-05-14",
        "2025-05-15",
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        "2025-05-19",
        "2025-05-20",
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        "2025-05-23",
        "2025-05-27",
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    "CAR_-10_+10": {
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      "n_days": 21,
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      "dates": [
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    "Post_+0_+5": {
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    "Post_+0_+20": {
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      "dates": [
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        "2025-05-23",
        "2025-05-27",
        "2025-05-28",
        "2025-05-29",
        "2025-05-30",
        "2025-06-02",
        "2025-06-03",
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        "2025-06-11",
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        "2025-06-24",
        "2025-06-25",
        "2025-06-26",
        "2025-06-27",
        "2025-06-30",
        "2025-07-01",
        "2025-07-02",
        "2025-07-03",
        "2025-07-07",
        "2025-07-08",
        "2025-07-09",
        "2025-07-10",
        "2025-07-11",
        "2025-07-14",
        "2025-07-15",
        "2025-07-16",
        "2025-07-17",
        "2025-07-18",
        "2025-07-21",
        "2025-07-22",
        "2025-07-23",
        "2025-07-24",
        "2025-07-25",
        "2025-07-28",
        "2025-07-29",
        "2025-07-30",
        "2025-07-31",
        "2025-08-01",
        "2025-08-04",
        "2025-08-05",
        "2025-08-06",
        "2025-08-07",
        "2025-08-08",
        "2025-08-11",
        "2025-08-12",
        "2025-08-13",
        "2025-08-14",
        "2025-08-15"
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    }
  },
  "pre_event_drift": {
    "slope": 5.946025372863369e-06,
    "t": 0.311736034509679,
    "p_value": 0.755241140047409,
    "verdict": "no_pretrend"
  },
  "BHAR": {
    "BHAR_1mo": {
      "horizon_days": 21,
      "BH_treated": -0.03127486268261093,
      "BH_market": 0.001995316517019674,
      "BHAR": -0.0332701791996306,
      "t_naive": -0.37927253098184505,
      "t_LBT_skewness_adj": -0.37663328690909936,
      "p_LBT": 0.7064461469935153,
      "n_days": 22
    },
    "BHAR_3mo": {
      "horizon_days": 63,
      "BH_treated": -0.03775566189241386,
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      "BHAR": -0.11365127111674134,
      "t_naive": -0.48843746557624873,
      "t_LBT_skewness_adj": -0.49191334110919677,
      "p_LBT": 0.6227806066338266,
      "n_days": 64
    },
    "BHAR_6mo": {
      "horizon_days": 126,
      "BH_treated": -0.00814825770082217,
      "BH_market": 0.11602392968382547,
      "BHAR": -0.12417218738464764,
      "t_naive": -0.3354893073318612,
      "t_LBT_skewness_adj": -0.3363506301496632,
      "p_LBT": 0.7366064742520675,
      "n_days": 127
    },
    "BHAR_12mo": {
      "status": "insufficient post-data: 237/253"
    }
  },
  "BHAR_to_now": {
    "T0": "2025-05-20",
    "last_date": "2026-04-29",
    "n_trading_days": 237,
    "calendar_days": 344,
    "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
    "BH_market": 0.20994754432641627,
    "BHAR": -0.04481040128400848,
    "t_LBT": 0.11836338815377505,
    "p_LBT": 0.9057797338296973
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  "vs_peers": {
    "DAL": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": 0.30665661994510107,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": -0.1415194769026933,
      "t": -0.2936705680502038,
      "p_two_sided": 0.7690096464062164
    },
    "UAL": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": 0.12719409375032953,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.03794304929207826,
      "t": 0.04310241490821822,
      "p_two_sided": 0.965619894271728
    },
    "AAL": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": -0.04637430463591108,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.21151144767831886,
      "t": 0.5048379074045788,
      "p_two_sided": 0.6136726885994541
    },
    "ALK": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": -0.2851277987645048,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.45026494180691257,
      "t": 1.2490160311751677,
      "p_two_sided": 0.21165921042795866
    },
    "JBLU": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": -0.02024289544013458,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.18538003848254236,
      "t": 0.19098097124558658,
      "p_two_sided": 0.8485405015030407
    },
    "ALGT": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": 0.35202325006389024,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": -0.18688610702148245,
      "t": -0.5297978892215002,
      "p_two_sided": 0.5962520688604496
    },
    "SKYW": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": -0.20962198128599807,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.37475912432840586,
      "t": 1.1863236419770484,
      "p_two_sided": 0.23549451357223972
    },
    "RYAAY": {
      "n_days": 237,
      "BH_treated": 0.16513714304240779,
      "BH_peer": 0.014560972587538856,
      "BHAR_vs_peer": 0.15057617045486893,
      "t": 0.44265330241250195,
      "p_two_sided": 0.6580165241744933
    }
  },
  "vs_peers_summary": {
    "n_peers": 8,
    "mean_BHAR_vs_peer": 0.13525364851486887,
    "median_BHAR_vs_peer": 0.16797810446870565,
    "min_BHAR_vs_peer": -0.18688610702148245,
    "max_BHAR_vs_peer": 0.45026494180691257
  },
  "calendar_time_alpha": {
    "monthly_alpha": 0.01180706802174254,
    "monthly_beta": 0.43455214630450967,
    "n_months": 12,
    "t_alpha": 0.309133876923734,
    "p_alpha": 0.7572196903441883,
    "annualized_alpha": 0.14168481626091048
  },
  "synthetic_control": {
    "donors": [
      "DAL",
      "UAL",
      "AAL",
      "ALK",
      "JBLU",
      "ALGT",
      "SKYW",
      "RYAAY"
    ],
    "weights": [
      [
        "SKYW",
        0.360896
      ],
      [
        "RYAAY",
        0.226629
      ],
      [
        "AAL",
        0.138568
      ],
      [
        "ALGT",
        0.09968
      ],
      [
        "JBLU",
        0.083081
      ],
      [
        "ALK",
        0.065053
      ],
      [
        "DAL",
        0.026093
      ],
      [
        "UAL",
        0.0
      ]
    ],
    "top_weight": 0.36089598946387197,
    "is_concentrated": false,
    "day0_ar_synth": 0.001956020195075181,
    "pre_rmspe": 0.018554866035317853,
    "fit_pearson": 0.7690599071880269,
    "fit_r2_levels": -0.2714213669561707,
    "passes_pre_fit_gate": false
  },
  "heckman_note": "Heckman selection model is a cohort-level analysis requiring the universe of potential adopters of TBOC \u00a721.552. For single-firm LUV analysis, the Heckman framework is out-of-scope. The cohort-level Heckman is reported in the Texas-incumbent statutory-adoption analysis across all 47 \u00a721.552 adopters in Panel C of the broader DExit study.",
  "generated_at": "2026-04-29T20:40:31Z",
  "data_source": "yfinance via 01_pull_luv_data.py"
}